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Sung-Ju Wu

Ph.D. in Economics, Duke University

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My research statement is here.

Working Papers

Foreign Profit Shifting and The Welfare Responses to The US-China Trade War: Evidence from Manufacturers in Vietnam (Job Market Paper), November 2023
PDF

Abstract

This paper studies the welfare implications of the US-China trade war in Vietnam when foreign-owned manufacturers repatriate their profits. Utilizing an enterprise survey in Vietnam, I provide novel evidence that Vietnam's positive responses in input sourcing, product export, and employment in 2017-2019 are driven mainly by foreign-owned manufacturers, especially Chinese manufacturers. To further understand the welfare gains of the trade war episode, I develop and estimate a quantitative model of trade participation with foreign ownership, where foreign-owned manufacturers do not retain their profits in the host country. A foreign demand shock to Vietnam of a magnitude similar to that of the trade war raises the real expenditure in the model by 5 percent, predominantly from an increase in labor income.


Firm and Labor Adjustments to FDI Liberalization, February 2023

with Ming-Jen Lin and Yi-Ting Wang | PDF | SSRN | Slides

Revise and Resubmit, Journal of International Economics

Abstract

This paper studies how liberalizing outward foreign direct investments (FDI) affects manufacturers' engagement in global production and their domestic workers' labor market outcomes. Focusing on a liberalization policy in 2001 by the government of Taiwan that allowed 122 electronic products to be produced in China, we estimate its effect on Taiwanese electronic manufacturers and their domestic workers. Employing a matched difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the manufacturers targeted by the policy were on average 16% more likely to invest in China relative to the non-targeted ones. Correspondingly, the domestic workers initially employed by the targeted manufacturers were on average more likely to change their jobs, stay employed for fewer years, and have lower wages in subsequent years relative to those employed by the non-targeted ones. The worker-level effects of the policy exhibited substantial heterogeneity across the initial wage distribution, with the top-decile workers benefiting and the other workers losing on average.

Work in Progress

Exports in Disguise: Trade Re-Routing during the US-China Trade War
with Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen, and Bo Feng

The Dynamics of Global Production
Slides available upon request

Regional Effect of FDI Composition Change in Vietnam
Slides available upon request